EURUSD to Head Sub-Par

EURUSD to Head Sub-Par

EURUSD to Head Sub-Par

EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.058. Volume was 90% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 63% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.057 1.059 1.057 1.058 12,366

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.06 1.06 1.09
Volatility: 8 9 9
Volume: 101,494 117,848 105,696

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 3.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

The Eurozone base interest rate, namely the interest rate on main refinancing operations, will remain at 0.00 percent, with the marginal lending rate and deposit rate remaining at 0.25 percent and minus 0.40 percent respectively.

ECB President Mario Draghi told a press conference that ECB continues to expect the key interests to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.

Though the euro area has seen inflation rate of 2 percent in February, “a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation in the medium term,” Draghi said.

Besides, ECB reaffirmed to follow the course determined by the Governing Council Meeting last December, namely to proceed with asset purchase programme (QE) at the current monthly pace of 80 billion euros (84.7 billion U.S. dollars) until the end of this month and of 60 billion euros from April onward, until the end of December 2017 or beyond if necessary.

ECB was ready to expand QE in terms of its size and duration, if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.

According to the latest ECB staff macroeconomic projections, Draghi said, ECB revised GDP growth forecast for the euro area upwards slightly to 1.8 percent in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018, followed by 1.6 percent in 2019.

Also significantly upwards has ECB revised its forecast of inflation rates for the euro area, namely 1.7 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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