EURUSD Why I Expect the Euro to Trade Sub-Par

EURUSD Why I Expect the Euro to Trade Sub-Par

EURUSD Why I Expect the Euro to Trade Sub-Par

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.020 at 1.133. Volume was 79% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.113 1.135 1.111 1.133 249,816

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.11 1.24 1.22
Volatility: 47 49 58
Volume: 1,329,708 1,691,735 523,123

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 7.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

euro target

Germany will see almost no growth Bundesbank predicted Friday as it cut its forecasts for Europe’s biggest economy.

The Bundesbank said the German economy is slowing and would only expand by 1.7 percent this year, slowing to 1.4 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent in 2018.

The latest forecast brings the central bank into line with the German government’s 2016 forecast, which is slightly more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund with a 1.5 percent growth estimate and German economics institutes which expect 1.6 percent.

Inflation is expected to remain subdued this year, the Bundesbank said, with consumer prices rising by just 0.2 percent, accelerating to 1.5 percent next year and 1.7 percent in 2018.

France also has downgraded the outlook for the second-biggest economy.

The Ba of France, also on Friday, reiterated its earlier 1.4 percent French growth forecast for this year, but cut its outlook for 2017 to 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent earlier. Growth of 1.6 percent would now only be achieved in 2018, it said.

The central bank said the international environment had become “less favourable” for French growth, and also cited expectations of higher oil prices as a negative factor for expansion.

France’s trade deficit, partly explained by a strong euro, was also weighing on gross domestic product (GDP), it said.

Limited growth was expected to lead to an equally limited increase in jobs, with employment levels likely to rise by 0.7 this year and 0.6 percent next year, the Bank of France said.

The French unemployment rate, a key focus for President Francois Hollande’s government, will ease to 10.1 percent this year from 10.3 percent in 2015, and fall below 10 percent only in 2018, the Bank of France predicted.

The bank also called on the government to control its deficits with the aim of cutting debt, which stands at 96 percent of GDP, vastly higher than the eurozone’s 60-percent target.

Hollande’s government has promised to reduce the public sector deficit to 3.3 percent this year before bringing it below the eurozone’s three-percent limit in 2017, to 2.7 percent.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.