Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) With US Inflation Out of the Way, Traders Look to Retail Sales

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) With US Inflation Out of the Way, Traders Look to Retail Sales

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) With US Inflation Out of the Way, Traders Look to Retail Sales

Yesterday’s CPI data failed to provide the catalyst for a EUR/USD rally above its 200 weekly moving average, an indicator the pair was hovering below ahead of the release.

Thursday’s docket is quite light data-wise, and so trader’s will be looking to US retail sales scheduled for release on Friday.

Final CPI figures out of Germany today were reported to rise by 0.2% which was in line with expectations. In Italy, the unemployment rate printed at 10.4% in the first quarter of the year, also matching expectations. Neither release had a significant impact on the exchange rate.

Technical Analysis

The big upside hurdle this week was, and will continue to be, the 200-period weekly moving average. The pair has mostly been trading around the indicator for about a year or so, but it has been relevant.

The pair initially tested it in August last year. After mostly just hovering above it for several months, it finally broke down in March. So far, rallies towards it have been met by sellers. In this context, I see this as a significant overhead hurdle.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.1294. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 216 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.128. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 37% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.128 1.128 1.127 1.128 3,165

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 6 5 7
Volume: 76,478 101,508 131,837

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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