Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) will fall to new lows in 2019

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) will fall to new lows in 2019

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) will fall to new lows in 2019

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate will fall to new lows next year, according to the latest forecasts from Barclays, as the European Central Bank (ECB) outlook darkens, political risks linger and the greenback remains top-dog in currency markets.

The Dollar will remain dominant next year, Barclays says in its 2019 outlook, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) goes on raising its interest rate and unease over the U.S.-China trade relationship continues to support the safe-haven greenback.

Fed policymakers will be raising their interest rate at the same times as the ECB comes around to the realisation that Europe’s inflation outlook is not nearly as robust as the central bank’s forecasts have led markets to believe. 

That will renew and reinforce the them of growth and monetary policy divergence that has been behind the 9% upward swing in the Dollar index since April 2018, keeping the Euro on its back foot.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.9516. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.133. Volume was 82% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 51% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.132 1.133 1.131 1.133 25,459

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.17
Volatility: 6 8 8
Volume: 138,949 139,602 139,214

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 3.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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