Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Weakness Despite Lack of Support from Eurozone Data

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Weakness Despite Lack of Support from Eurozone Data

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Weakness Despite Lack of Support from Eurozone Data

The Eurozone’s economic outlook didn’t actually change much last week, but the Euro saw significant gains against the US Dollar regardless.

Concerns about the possibility of a Turkish currency crisis persisted, the Eurozone’s August PMI projections were mixed, and Germany’s final Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth results met forecasts.

In fact, as the Eurozone’s August composite PMI projection fell short of forecasts, it actually weighed on the Euro slightly.

Despite that though, the shared currency was able to capitalise on the US Dollar’s selloff throughout the week.

Weeks of US Dollar bullishness came to an end last week, as concerns about US politics and monetary policy made investors more bearish.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.

The projected upper bound is: 1.18.

The projected lower bound is: 1.15.

The projected closing price is: 1.16.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.5679. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.161. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.163 1.163 1.161 1.161 1,547

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.15 1.16 1.20
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 130,232 144,816 132,489

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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