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Sunday, October 24, 2021

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Volatility to Slow for Remainder of Week

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Volatility to Slow for Remainder of Week

With the Thanksgiving holiday, it is like the markets will see a further slowing of volatility in the second half of the week. I suspect intraday traders will continue to fade extreme moves and that the pair will look to close the week out not too far from where it trades now.

Buyers stepped in yesterday just ahead of the current November low of 1.0989. This prevented stops being triggered as it is quite likely that some have accumulated below the low.

US data releases from yesterday were mixed. GDP growth came in slightly ahead of the analyst estimate for last quarter and durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in October. However, the Chicago PMI, home sales and the PCE index all fell short of expectations.

Of note is the core PCE reading for October which showed a rise of 0.1%. It was the fourth consecutive month that the figure fell short. The last time it beat expectations was a year ago. This suggests inflationary pressures remain and does not bode well for the Federal Reserve.

Another factor impacting the Federal Reserve is a somewhat negative development in the US-China trade war. Yesterday, President Donald Trump signed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong. China was not pleased and commented that the US was unnecessarily interfering in domestic matters.

This has resulted in a bit of risk-off in the markets with most of the indices paring gains while precious metals are seeing a very small lift.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.8982. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.101. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.100 1.102 1.100 1.101 55,932
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 3 5 6
Volume: 64,348 70,073 92,481

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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