Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) very likely that the pair is going to continue to drift lower
The Euro continues to find the 1.10 level very resistive on an almost daily basis, as we had seen a lot of selling pressure just above there, and now are forming the fourth candlestick in a row that has a long wick testing that level. Because of this, it’s very likely that the pair is going to continue to drift lower, perhaps because of bond buying in America, or perhaps even more likely the fact that the European economy is almost certainly going to go into recession. As the US is still positive from an economic standpoint, this makes quite a bit of sense.
At this point, it’s very likely that the EUR/USD pair is going to go down to the 1.09 level, which we have seen a certain amount of buying at recently. This is a choppy and consolidation driven market, but certainly it has a lot of downward momentum over the longer-term. This is simply yet another scenario where we “fade the rally” which is exactly how the market has been traded for the last 18 months.
With that, I like the idea of fading this move, because quite frankly if we were to break back above the 1.10 level after the last four candlesticks, that would be an extraordinarily strong move that would have me reversing the trade as it would be so crucial. Ultimately, I do believe that we not only go to the 1.09 level but much lower. It’s still a market that short-term traders will be attracted to though, because the moves are going to be that big in the moment.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.
The projected upper bound is: 1.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1.08.
The projected closing price is: 1.10.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.4467. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.096. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.095 1.096 1.095 1.096 682
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.09 1.11 1.12
Volatility: 4 6 6
Volume: 62,895 79,473 106,580
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 66 periods.