Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) US Consumer Confidence Declines in September

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) US Consumer Confidence Declines in September

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) US Consumer Confidence Declines in September

The Conference Board reported a drop in the Consumer Confidence Index to 125.1 in September, down from 134.2 in the prior month. The figure fell short of the analyst estimate of 134.1 although the release did not have much of an impact on the dollar.

EUR/USD gained above the psychological 1.1000 level on Tuesday but the rally was brief as the pair has wiped out most of the gain in early trading today. A range has formed in the early week. I expect, considering the light economic calendar in the session ahead, that the pair will likely continue trading within this range.

In the North American session, Fed members Evans and George are scheduled to speak. We may see more volatility on Thursday as US GDP figures will be released and ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak.

Technical Analysis

As mentioned, EUR/USD has fallen in a range in the early week. But in addition to that, the pair also seems to be forming a range from a broader perspective.

For most of the month, EUR/USD has traded roughly between 1.0960 and 1.1060. Aside of course from the occasional spike outside this range.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.10.

The projected lower bound is: 1.08.

The projected closing price is: 1.09.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.3682. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -204.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.094. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.094 1.094 1.094 1.094 1,191
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.12
Volatility: 8 6 6
Volume: 64,218 80,562 107,998

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 57 periods.

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