Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) under pressure over a weakening Euro Zone economy

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) under pressure over a weakening Euro Zone economy

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) under pressure over a weakening Euro Zone economy

The Euro is under pressure on Thursday due to concerns over a weakening Euro Zone economy. Earlier today, reports showed a drop in manufacturing and services data in Germany and the Euro Zone. This confirmed that the escalating trade disputes are having a negative effect on the European economy. Concerns over the global economy have been compounded by worries over political uncertainty, particularly in Europe.

German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 44.3, below the 44.9 forecast and 44.4 previous read. Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI was 47.7. This was below the 48.2 estimate and 47.9 previous read. Euro Zone Flash Services PMI was 52.5. Additionally, German Ifo Business Climate came in at 97.9. Traders were looking for a reading of 99.2

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.8335. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 200 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -100.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.118. Volume was 26% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.115 1.119 1.111 1.118 97,497

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 98,874 118,075 135,848

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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