Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Triangle Close to Breaking Out
From a number of perspectives, therefore, we think euro weakness has run much of its course for now and advise buying into weakness.
Reduced trade uncertainty, a stabilization in the data, discounted policy rate differentials, a large current account surplus and the geopolitical sensitivities of exchange rate moves all suggest it may be close to, or already have reached, its lows on this move.
We advise buying the EUR vs USD at current levels and averaging into any near-term weakness. We look for a medium-term move towards 1.25 and above.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.18.
The projected lower bound is: 1.15.
The projected closing price is: 1.17.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.8842. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 43 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed unchanged at 1.166. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 57% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.166 1.167 1.165 1.166 2,156
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.17 1.17 1.20
Volatility: 7 9 9
Volume: 131,414 152,942 129,660
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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