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Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) treading water with little in the way of news to move the market


Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) treading water with little in the way of news to move the market

The Euro went back and forth during trading on Tuesday as currency markets were relatively quiet after the Memorial Day weekend. That being said, the market looks as if it is hanging around the 1.12 handle, a significant resistance barrier that extends at least 50 pips. We can break above the 1.1250, then it’s likely that we could go to the 1.13 level.

Otherwise, the market looks as if it will go back and forth quite a bit, and therefore I recommend shorting closer to the 1.12 level, and buying closer to 1.11 level. If and when we break out of this overall range, then we can start to trade for bigger moves. Until then, I wouldn’t expect much in this market, other than a short-term “smash and grab” situation. This market looks as if it is settling into a range, which is quite common during the summer months, as traders begin to focus on beaches rather than charts.

If you are patient or not you should be able to play a range bounce system to be quite profitable. However, I will keep you advised your effects of situation dictates a change in our approach. In the meantime, I would look for short-term trades, probably the variety of 35 pips or so at a time. If we break down, the 1.10 level will be massive support. If we break higher, the 1.14 level will be massive resistance.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=) this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.

During an uptrend the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.8564. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 204 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.116. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.116 1.117 1.116 1.116 4,076

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 84,415 113,429 134,557

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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