Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) trading near weekly lows as the ECB might be getting ready for more stimulus

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) trading near weekly lows as the ECB might be getting ready for more stimulus

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) trading near weekly lows as the ECB might be getting ready for more stimulus

On the daily time-frame, the common currency is trading in a bear trend below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). Earlier in the New York session, the US Retail Sales Control Group came in better-than-expected at 1% vs. 0.3% in July.

The data brought EUR/USD down to 1.1135, but sellers didn’t manage to break the support. However, 1.1135 got broken after the comments from ECB member Olli Rehn. He said the ECB (European Central Bank) stimulus package might beat expectations.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.8024. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 260 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.003 at 1.111. Volume was 2% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.114 1.116 1.109 1.111 88,204
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 94,503 77,952 119,799

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.

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