Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) traders await German data

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) traders await German data

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) traders await German data

EUR/USD struggles around 1.1230 while heading towards European sessions on Monday. The pair fall short of extending Friday’s NFP-backed recovery as recent comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave little importance to the data miss. Monthly readings of German trade balance and industrial production could offer intermediate moves ahead of diverting market attention to the US retail sales numbers.

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair recovered from a near thirty-month low after the US nonfarm payrolls missed +180K forecast by big time with +20K figure for February month. 

However, the buyers couldn’t rule on Monday as the Fed Chair maintained his outlook of the US economy and interest rates during latest appearances at the Stanford University and also at the CBS interview.

Seasonally adjusted January month industrial production and trade balance details from Germany can act as early trigger for the quote around 07:00 GMT followed by February month retail sales numbers from the US at 12:30 GMT.

German industrial production and trade balance could support the EUR strength if matching +0.4% and Euro 21.0 billion market consensus versus -0.4% and 19.4 billion Euro previous numbers. Though, US retail sales could blow the regional currency’s strength as the forecast suggests a +0.6% growth of the retail sales control group figure against -1.7% earlier decline. The retail sales (MoM) may recover to +0.1% from -1.2% whereas retail sales ex-autos could also rise by +0.3% versus -1.8% earlier figure.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.14.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.3670. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.08. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 147 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -128.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.125. Volume was 73% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 5% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.124 1.125 1.122 1.125 39,314

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 131,480 142,687 143,347

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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