Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) to extend higher following a pull-back
The Euro-to-Dollar rate is trading at around 1.1079 at the start of the new week after falling 0.81% in the week before. Studies of the charts continue to show the pair in a short-term uptrend, however, which is favoured to extend albeit through tough resistance which could make progress slow.
The daily chart shows more clearly how the 200-day moving average (MA) is acting as a ‘glass ceiling’ preventing further gains.
Only a clear break above the MA, confirmed by a break above 1.1235 would likely see the pair continue up to the next key level, a major trendline situated at 1.1275-1.1325.
The daily chart is used to give us an indication of the outlook for the medium-term, defined as the next week to a month ahead.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.4076. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 39 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed unchanged at 1.108. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.108 1.109 1.107 1.108 675
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 5 6 6
Volume: 70,624 76,149 102,278
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.
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