Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) The ECB will release its monthly economic bulletin on Friday
On the Macro
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, with just 13 stats to monitor. In the previous week, 94 stats had been in focus.
With many of the markets shut through the middle part of the week, volumes will be on the lighter, particularly across the European and U.S markets.
For the Dollar:
November new home sales get things going on Monday, with a rebound from a 0.7% fall in October needed to support the Dollar.
Mortgage rates and interest rates remain supportively low and labor market conditions are prime to continue supporting the sector.
A lack of stats in the week will leave the Dollar more sensitive to the numbers.
The focus will then shift to November durable goods and core durable goods orders due out on Tuesday.
With no other stats to consider in the week ahead and with lighter volumes anticipated, the Dollar will certainly respond to the numbers.
On the geopolitical front, there’s unlikely to be too many surprises to disrupt what should be a relatively peaceful week for the global financial markets.
The U.S markets are on a half-day on Tuesday and will be closed on Wednesday.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up 0.53% to $97.690.
For the EUR:
It’s also a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. The markets will need to wait until Friday for anything material to consider. The ECB will release its monthly economic bulletin on Friday.
It will be Lagarde’s first release and will also garner plenty of attention. Expect the EUR to come under pressure if recent private sector PMIs have weighed on the ECB’s outlook.
On the Brexit front, there will no doubt be some chatter, though with the UK and European markets closed on Wednesday and Thursday, and the DAX30 also closed on Tuesday, it shouldn’t be too spectacular…
The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.38% to $1.1079.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.6508. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 79 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.108. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.108 1.108 1.108 1.108 21
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.11 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 4 4 5
Volume: 54,248 64,426 85,084
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.
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