Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) testing trend resistance set from January 2018 once again

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) testing trend resistance set from January 2018 once again

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) testing trend resistance set from January 2018 once again

The Euro is once again testing resistance guiding the move lower from January 2018 against the US Dollar. The appearance of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern hints that a turn lower may be brewing ahead. Support guiding the upswing form mid-February remains intact however, so confirmation of even a near-term pullback is absent for now.

An initial push below the 1.1366-71 area would expose a minor chart barrier at 1.1321, but a true test of lasting bearish conviction probably calls for descent to the 1.1216-34 zone. This marks the floor on the choppy range in play since mid-November. A daily close below it might mark the start of the next leg in the structural, long-term downtrend. Overall trend resistance is now at 1.1430.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.14.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.5517. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 140 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 123.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.138. Volume was 2% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.137 1.142 1.136 1.138 142,838

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 2 7 8
Volume: 142,200 141,171 144,696

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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