Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) support near the 1.1075 level as we continue to go back and forth

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) support near the 1.1075 level as we continue to go back and forth

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) support near the 1.1075 level as we continue to go back and forth

The Euro has initially fallen during the trading session on Tuesday, showing signs of weakness yet again, but we have a move higher that has shown that the market is ready to continue to go back and forth. The market is essentially going back and forth overall, which makes sense considering that the pair tends to be very choppy in general. However, we are in a longer term downtrend and I keep that in mind when I take a look at this chart.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level also features the 200 day EMA, so it makes quite a bit of sense that the market would recognize that as a bit of a short-term “ceiling”, perhaps keep in the market in a downtrend for the longer term. At this point, the market looks likely to see a lot of volatility, so at this point it’s likely to offer selling opportunities above, and perhaps even buying opportunities closer to the 1.10 level. However, I am much more comfortable selling the rallies on signs of exhaustion that I am buying supportive looking balances. This is because of the longer-term trend and of course the fact that the European Union is a bit of a basket case as of late. Beyond that, the US economy is stronger than the European, so it does tend to favor a move to the downside.

However, if we were to break above the 200 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 1.12 handle, then it could change a lot in this market, perhaps sending the Euro to the 1.14 level above.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.5170. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 40 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.111. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.110 1.112 1.107 1.111 56,351
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 5 6 6
Volume: 72,333 76,606 102,030

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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