Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ‘Stuck’ in key price zone

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ‘Stuck’ in key price zone

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) ‘Stuck’ in key price zone

The early month dramatics in EUR/USD have calmed over the past week. As that burst of USD-weakness showed up on the back of additional tariffs on China (less than 24 hours after FOMC), EUR/USD burst up from fresh two-year-lows to run all the way up to a key zone on the chart that runs from 1.1187-1.1212. Price action has continued to meander within this range over the past week, setting up for a scenario that could break either-way.

Reading between the lines – prices have built a short-term bearish channel within this resistance zone. From shorter-term vantage points, it could be approached as a bull flag scenario, and for those looking at breakdown scenarios in the US Dollar, this could remain of interest.

Taking a step back to the Daily chart, however, can make this a bit more attractive from a bearish perspective. The continued stall at this key zone of prior support keeps the door open for short-side swings; and this could mesh well with those looking for a return of USD-strength around tomorrow’s CPI release.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.12.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.9616. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 257 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.121. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.120 1.123 1.116 1.121 70,209
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 93,777 78,004 120,762

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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