Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Struggles At Major Round Figure

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Struggles At Major Round Figure

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Struggles At Major Round Figure

The Euro broke higher during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the 1.12 level momentarily. At this point, the market is likely to go back and forth in this area, and perhaps do very little due to the fact that New Year’s Day is Wednesday. However, we are making a serious argument for trying to break out. Nonetheless, I’m not interested in buying a breakout until we get a daily close significantly above the 1.12 handle, because it could be the beginning of something rather big.

Alternately, if we were to break down from here and sliced below the 1.1170 level, it’s likely that the market would roll right back over to reach towards the 50 day EMA. That being said, it’s difficult to get overly excited one way or the other because the trading will be very quiet over the next 24 hours, and that of course will be nonexistent on New Year’s Day. With that in mind, I’m looking to fade rallies but also recognize that looking to the daily close will probably be the best way to go about trading this market. We have seen a lot of noise lately, and I think that will continue to be the case. All things being equal, we are still in a downtrend despite what we have seen of the last couple of days. With this, I believe that the Euro will be worth paying attention to over the next couple of trading sessions.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 81.1375. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 193.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.120. Volume was 25% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.117 1.122 1.117 1.120 51,207
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 5 4 5
Volume: 47,049 61,405 82,866

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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