Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) still in a downtrend

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) still in a downtrend

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) still in a downtrend

The Euro has done very little during the trading session on Monday, as the market is sitting at the 50 day EMA. This is obviously an area that is going to cause some issues, as market participants are looking at both the technical analysis and wondering exactly what just happened in the United States during the talks with the Chinese. Essentially, nothing was settled so it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where it is suddenly a huge “risk on” type of situation.

The Chinese have stated that they wish to talk more before signing the first phase of the agreement, signaling that nothing has changed. Ultimately, that will continue to cause major issues in risk appetite around the world and obviously have an influence on the US dollar as it should strengthen while money flows into the bond markets. On the other hand, this pair also has to deal with the Brexit situation which seems to be a little less optimistic than previously reported. Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior when it comes to this pair, as much like the US/China situation, it comes down to the next rumor or headline that crosses Twitter as to where this pair goes.

Ultimately, we are in a downtrend and that’s probably the easiest way to look at this chart. The 1.11 level above is significant resistance, and although this market has rallied quite nicely over the last couple of sessions, it should be pointed out that the daily candlesticks continue to form long wicks to the upside, and that is something that should not be ignored.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A gravestone doji occurred. This often signifies a top (the longer the upper shadow, the more bearish the signal).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.5811. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 118.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.103. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.103 1.103 1.103 1.103 1
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 3 6 6
Volume: 68,167 77,886 105,833

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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