Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Stifled by Sub-Par Factory Activity Growth
The Euro (EUR) was unable to gain momentum yesterday with the release of the bloc’s manufacturing PMI for July.
EUR/USD is trading lower and lost more than 80 pips from yesterday’s high of 1.16996 after more hawkish fed policy. Fed has kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.75%-2% and has upgraded the assessment of US economy from solid to strong. This have increased expectations that fed will hike interest rates surely in Sep and Dec.
US ISM manufacturing index came at 58.1 in Jul the lowest since Apr 2018 and below forecast (59.4).
US 10 year bond yield has broken 3% and hits 3.160% highest in six weeks. US has planned to raise the tariffs from previous 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese import. The trade war is also supporting the US dollar prices to certain extent.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.18.
The projected lower bound is: 1.14.
The projected closing price is: 1.16.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.4347. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 47 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -169.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.158. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.158 1.160 1.158 1.158 8,307
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.17 1.17 1.20
Volatility: 7 9 8
Volume: 128,328 150,683 130,144
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.