Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) steady in European trade
EUR/USD has edged lower in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1306, down 0.24% on the day. German banks are closed for Whit Day. On the release front, there are no German or eurozone events. In the U.S., the sole event is JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to tick up to 7.50 million. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases Producer Price Index reports.
The euro enjoyed an outstanding week, with gains of 1.5%. This marked the strongest weekly gain since August. The currency posted considerable gains on Friday, after a dismal nonfarm payrolls report for May. The economy created only 75 thousand jobs, down from 263 thousand a month earlier. Wage growth was unchanged at 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. Despite these soft job numbers, the U.S. economy remains in far better shape than the eurozone, so last week’s spike could be short-lived.
The message from last week’s ECB policy meeting was dovish, yet the euro still managed to post gains. The ECB surprised the markets by revising its forward guidance, saying that it would not raise interest rates before the middle of 2020. Previously, the bank had said that it would not hike rates prior to the spring of 2020. The delay is a response to weak economic conditions in the eurozone, as the global trade war has taken a toll on manufacturing and exports in Germany and the rest of the bloc.
As expected, ECB President Draghi said that ECB will pay banks to borrow funds from the central bank, if the funds are passed on to consumers and small businesses. This is a stimulus measure with the aim of boosting spending in the private sector. The bank upwardly revised its 2019 outlooks for growth and inflation. In March, the ECB forecast GDP at 1.1% and inflation at 1.2% – these were revised to 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.14.
The projected lower bound is: 1.12.
The projected closing price is: 1.13.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.2109. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 212 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 136.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.132. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 19% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.132 1.133 1.129 1.132 67,969
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 7 5 7
Volume: 95,309 107,494 133,235
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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