Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) steady after positive week
EUR/USD has started the week with small gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1310, up 0.10% on the day. Last week, the pair climbed 0.7%, its best week since mid-March. It’s quiet on the fundamentals front, with no major events out of the eurozone. In the U.S., the Empire State manufacturing index is projected to jump to 8.0 in April. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment, with a forecast of 0.9 points.
U.S. inflation numbers showed improvement in March. CPI climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, a 5-month high. Inflation remains well below the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%, but stronger inflation numbers will bolster the case of Fed officials who favor raising rates in 2019 if the economic outlook improves. The Fed minutes from the March meeting left the door open to further rate hikes this year, but current market pricing suggests no hikes until 2020, and some analysts are expecting a cut in rates later this year.
The markets will be keeping a close eye on German ZEW economic sentiment, a key gauge of investor confidence. The indicator has been mired in negative territory for the past 12 months, but the scores have been improving. The April estimate stands at 0..9, which although not a strong gain, is symbolic for being in positive territory. If the indicator can meet or beat the forecast, the euro could respond with gains.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.
The projected upper bound is: 1.14.
The projected lower bound is: 1.12.
The projected closing price is: 1.13.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.3072. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 172 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 162.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.130. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.130 1.132 1.129 1.130 93,475
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.13 1.14
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 125,728 140,453 141,134
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.
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