Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing signs of short-term weakness
The Euro pulled back a bit during the session on Monday to show signs of short-term weakness. The question now is whether or not it can continue to take the move higher.
The Euro has pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, to show signs of weakness to kick off the trading week. However, at this point it should also be noted that the 200 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level continues to look as if it offers a bit of short-term resistance. The market has the 50 day EMA underneath at the 1.1050 level, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to go back and forth in this area until we can get some type of catalyst.
At this point, the market looks very likely to continue to be choppy overall, and with the 200 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement being just above, it could continue to push this market lower as it has been in a long-term downtrend.
Overall, the market could very well find itself falling at the first signs of trouble but at this point if the market was to break above the 1.1250 level, the market could start to break out and move to the upside. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to be choppy to say the least, which is typical for this pair, so one has to look to the longer-term charts to determine where things are likely to go.
At this point, it still looks very negative but that obviously can change if we get better economic figures coming out the European Union. For what it’s worth, the Manufacturing PMI figures were slightly better than anticipated during the early hours on Monday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.7012. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 44 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.004 at 1.113. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.117 1.117 1.112 1.113 62,652
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 4 6 6
Volume: 69,290 75,387 100,335
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 0.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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