Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing signs of exhaustion

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing signs of exhaustion

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing signs of exhaustion

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but struggled at the recent highs again, turning around to show signs of exhaustion. By doing so, it looks as if the market isn’t ready to go higher anytime soon, as the 200 day EMA looms large just above near the 1.12 to handle.

That should continue to cause major selling pressure, as the market would then reach down towards the bottom of the recent consolidation. The 1.1075 level has offered significant support so at this point in time it’s likely that the market will continue to find buyers in that area. Beyond that, the 50 day EMA underneath there should offer better support.

With the jobs number coming out on Friday, it will more than likely cause a bit of volatility, so give it enough time the market will undulate back and forth. At this point, if we break above the 200 day EMA is a very bullish sign, but we need to see a significant break out and perhaps even a weekly close above their as well.

The market breaking below the 50 day EMA would send this market down to the 1.09 level below, which is the most recent low. As this market continues to show signs of exhaustion, sellers will come in and take advantage of the longer term trend over the last three years. Quite frankly, this looks like a decent sell opportunity unless of course we get an impulsive rip to the upside after the figures come out.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.4208. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 42 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.115. Volume was 8% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.115 1.117 1.113 1.115 84,635
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 4 6 6
Volume: 70,636 76,498 101,335

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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