Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing early signs of a change in trend

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing early signs of a change in trend

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing early signs of a change in trend

While still in its early stages and vulnerable to a breakdown, the fledgling uptrend will probably endure over coming days now the exchange rate has formed two higher-highs and two higher lows on the 4-hour chart – a major indicator of early stage changes in trend.

The EUR/USD has been falling since it failed at support turned resistance at 1.1500 and has tracked all the way down to 1.1300.

The low held up pretty well and thanks to the USD easing off, the EUR/USD was able to recover. And we closed out the week above 1.1400, which was a really positive sign in an otherwise tough week.

1.1400 will again be a key level. If the USD regains some buying, we are going to have a tough time of things trying to hold support.

If price breaks 1.1400, there will be little holding the Euro back form again testing 1.1300.

The biggest risk, as mentioned, really is a hawkish FOMC minutes. But the FOMC has been very transparent so far with their plans to raise rates a further two times this year.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.

The projected upper bound is: 1.16.

The projected lower bound is: 1.13.

The projected closing price is: 1.14.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.3552. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.143. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 43% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.144 1.144 1.143 1.143 939

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.16 1.20
Volatility: 9 9 9
Volume: 132,779 146,928 131,956

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 4.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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