Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) showing a far different tonality so far in July/Q3
The Q3 open has so far seen a return of sellers in EUR/USD, following a month of June that saw bears get squeezed as US Dollar weakness had showed up. Behind that USD weakness was a seemingly dovish outlay at the Federal Reserve in which the bank highlighted the prospect of a rate cut in the second-half of this year. But, as that dovish scenario was getting priced-in to markets through the both bonds and the US Dollar, stocks continued to rally, eventually pushing up to fresh all-time-highs. And then all-of-the-sudden, that dovish backdrop around the Fed didn’t look as probable as it did around the June open.
At this point, USD strength has been consistently showing since the July open, and this week will see the currency stay on center-stage as a series of Fed speeches populate the calendar, highlighted by the two-day testimony from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell on Capitol Hill. That takes place on Wednesday and Thursday and leading into that event, EUR/USD is sitting at an area of support that’s been in-play in various fashions since last November. This zone runs from the 1.1187 Fibonacci level up to the 1.1212 level, the latter of which is the 61.8% retracement of the ‘lifetime move’ in EUR/USD.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.13.
The projected lower bound is: 1.11.
The projected closing price is: 1.12.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.3434. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 234 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -115.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.121. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 36% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.121 1.121 1.120 1.121 860
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 63,775 86,102 125,936
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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