Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) selling to possibly extend into the bottoms at 1.1116 and 1.1107

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) selling to possibly extend into the bottoms at 1.1116 and 1.1107

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) selling to possibly extend into the bottoms at 1.1116 and 1.1107

The Euro is trading nearly flat against the U.S. Dollar early Thursday, well ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate and monetary policy decisions at 11:45 GMT and ECB President Mario Draghi’s Press Conference at 12:30 GMT.

The single-currency is hovering near a two-month low as traders see a 48% probability that European policymakers will lower a key deposit rate by 10 basis points to minus 0.50%, according to interest rate swaps. If the ECB decides to keep policy on hold Thursday, then look for President Mario Draghi to flag a rate cut for the next policy meeting in September.

In other news, shortly before the ECB decisions, the Ifo Institute will release its closely-watched index of German business sentiment at 08:00 GMT. It should provide further clues about the health of Europe’s largest economy.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.7214. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 245 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -156.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.002 at 1.116. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.114 1.117 1.110 1.116 53,664
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 73,255 79,509 123,393

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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