Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rejected by 50-day moving average

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rejected by 50-day moving average

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rejected by 50-day moving average

The Euro-to-Dollar rate is set to begin trading around 1.1232 Sunday after rising by a quarter of a percent during the previous week, although studies of the charts suggest further upside may be increasingly difficult for the single currency to attain over the coming days.  

Europe’s currency benefited from a weakening of the Dollar last week, which was hurt by President Donald Trump’s decision to increase from 10% to 25% the tariffs levied on U.S. imports from China. 

From a technical perspective, the signals for EUR/USD are mixed. The pair has now undergone two weeks of recovery, but it’s done so while still within a descending channel and the market was recently repelled at the 50-day moving average located around 1.1251. 

The 50-day average is now likely to act as a hard ceiling above which further gains are unlikely. But that’s not the only impediment to further progress by the Euro, because the current market price is also close to the upper border of the descending channel. 

This upper border is a place where prices have reversed many times before so there is some chance the exchange rate could simply reverse and start falling again soon. However, there is no evidence yet that the trend is about to turn lower. We retain a neutral view until the next stage of the trend emerges. 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.0893. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 191 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 133.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.123. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.121 1.125 1.121 1.123 125,719

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.13 1.14
Volatility: 3 6 7
Volume: 109,091 126,529 137,960

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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