Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rebounds of down-trend resistance

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rebounds of down-trend resistance

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rebounds of down-trend resistance

Euro reversed off downtrend resistance against the US Dollar last week with decline now testing monthly open support. The immediate focus is on a breakout of last week’s range – these are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price chart.

Technical Outlook

In this month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was “poised to mark a massive reversal candle off slope support – IF EUR/USD has indeed turned the corner, look for exhaustion pullbacks to be limited to the monthly open.” A brief retest of the September opening-range lows post-ECB unleashed a rally into confluence resistance on Friday at 1.1107- price has pulled back from this threshold early in the week with the decline once again approaching monthly open support at 1.0990. We’re now looking for a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.3480. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.100. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 321
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.13
Volatility: 6 6 6
Volume: 73,452 81,555 111,548

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 50 periods.

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