Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rebound unlikely to last

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rebound unlikely to last

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) rebound unlikely to last

Eur/Usd has been pushing higher over the past week, reversing much of the downside seen throughout the first two weeks of the month.

With the price having gained so much, it looks likely that we are seeing a retracement of the wider deterioration from $1.1746. Thus, while this rebound is impressive, it is not expected to last. As such, while we could see another short-term bounce, a bearish outlook is in play now that we have seen the price move into the 61.8% to 76.4% retracement zone.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.

The projected upper bound is: 1.18.

The projected lower bound is: 1.14.

The projected closing price is: 1.16.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 91.6775. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.160. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.157 1.162 1.155 1.160 127,236

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.16 1.20
Volatility: 11 10 9
Volume: 145,981 148,237 132,706

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 3.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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