Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Rebound Still Possible

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Rebound Still Possible

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Rebound Still Possible

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate saw a mixed start to the weekly session, with the Fiber initially pushing higher to post a session best above $1.133 before declining. From an overnight low of ~$1.293, the cross was last seen edging higher at $1.13115.

The data schedule for the USD remains clear but for the Euro, exchange rates could be impacted by the latest German economic sentiment figures (10:00GMT) with pessimism expected to reduce, lifting the index to -14.1 from a prior -15.

US-China trade talks also hold the potential to move the cross with progress towards a deal likely to boost investor sentiment, supporting the single currency and weighing on the Greenback.

Commenting on the Euro near-term, Mizuho Securities, chief FX strategist, Masafumi Yamamoto wrote “The euro’s latest bounce was not based a positive incentive specific to the currency and the market will likely return to pricing in the potential negatives. The euro will remain on a shaky footing,” adding “There is still some way to go before potential negatives are factored into the euro ahead of the March 7 ECB meeting.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.7813. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 134 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -0. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.134. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 17% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.134 1.136 1.133 1.134 3,826

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 6 8 8
Volume: 127,890 140,793 144,105

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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