Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Reality check risks uptrend support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Reality check risks uptrend support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Reality check risks uptrend support

The EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.1700 than to 1.1800. The pair enjoyed the market calm on Monday to rise to higher ground and as markets are more balanced, the pair retreats. The EU and China on the need to maintain free trade as Chinese Prime Minister Li visited Berlin. However, US President Donald Trump is set to tour Europe as well, and the atmosphere around trade could change.

Trump is attending the NATO Summit and has urged his counterparts to do more on trade. He also tied between NATO spending and EU tariffs on cars. Markets may be somewhat more cautious ahead of the Summit, especially after the catastrophic G-7 Summit last month. The rift between the EU and the US is growing.

The EUR/USD traded in an upward channel since late June and the recent slide indicates another leg lower. Momentum has waned, but the Relative Strength Index remains above 50 and out of overbought territory, providing some hope. Another positive is found in the Simple Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart. The 50 crossed the 200 to the upside. All in all, there are mixed signals for the pair, and this is still a correction.

The 1.1720 level is a battleground after capping the pair in late June and in early July. Close by, 1.1690 held the pair down in late June and now switched to support. 1.1630 was the low on July 3rd, and it is followed by 1.1590 that held the pair from falling in early July.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.19.

The projected lower bound is: 1.16.

The projected closing price is: 1.17.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.7631. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 104.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.173. Volume was 91% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.174 1.175 1.173 1.173 12,430

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.17 1.17 1.20
Volatility: 7 9 9
Volume: 140,493 147,355 127,391

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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