Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Rates Fall as Eurozone Economic Concerns Rise
The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was hit several times this week, with disappointing economic data releases further exacerbating fears of a slowing Eurozone economy.
The Euro started Monday subdued following the publication of the Irish construction PMI figures, which fell to 54.6.
There were no other notable economic data releases on Monday, with many EUR investors fixated on geopolitical developments as well as ongoing Brexit developments in the UK.
Tuesday, meanwhile, saw the Euro benefit from positive Portuguese CPI figures which increased above expectation to 0.5%.
These gains were tempered, however, by comments from Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, who said that the Eurozone remains vulnerable to a financial crisis.
The Euro was hit on Wednesday following poor Eurozone industrial production figures for December, which fell below expectation by -0.9% – its biggest plunge since 2009.
EUR investors also remained anxious over Spain’s parliamentary vote on the 2019 budget, following comments from the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, who said a snap-election would be likely if it was rejected.
Thursday saw the Euro fall further following German Q4 GDP figures falling to 0%, with Germany only narrowly avoiding falling into recession by the narrowest margins.
Friday, meanwhile, saw the Euro continue to struggle following poor Spanish CPI figures, which fell -1.3%.
These were followed by the announcement by Pedro Sánchez that Spain would face a general election on 28 April following the rejection of the national budget by Catalan secessionists and other parties.
Political upheavals throughout Europe have continued to cause concern for Euro investors, and with Spain also facing fresh political challenges, many investors have become increasing cautious.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.14.
The projected upper bound is: 1.15.
The projected lower bound is: 1.12.
The projected closing price is: 1.13.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.8615. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 132 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.132. Volume was 49% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.129 1.133 1.128 1.132 73,888
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 6 8 8
Volume: 145,527 144,454 144,799
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.
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