Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) pushing higher after recent decline
EUR/USD has been falling back over the turn of the year, with the price dropping below the key $1.1305 level. To some extent, that fall into a new lower low could signal the start of a more bearish phase coming into play.
However, with the price having dropped back towards the ascending trendline, it is clear that the wider upward trend could remain in play. As such, there is not a clear-cut bullish or bearish pattern in play here, with arguments for both. As such, watch for a break through $1.1500 to confirm the bullish theme. Otherwise, a bearish turn before that $1.1500 level would start providing signals of a possible next leg lower.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.16.
The projected lower bound is: 1.13.
The projected closing price is: 1.15.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.2981. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 102 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 36 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.008 at 1.147. Volume was 39% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.139 1.148 1.139 1.147 84,590
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.16
Volatility: 9 9 8
Volume: 101,160 141,840 140,297
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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