Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) pullback unlikely to last

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) pullback unlikely to last

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) pullback unlikely to last

Friday saw EUR/USD attempt to reverse some of its recent gains, with the break through $1.1549 and $1.1594 providing a bullish reversal signal.

We do not know the size of this current retracement, yet unless we reverse the whole of last week’s rally and break below $1.1432, then this current weakness is unlikely to last. As such, another push higher looks likely before long, with the pair expected to rise into a deeper retracement of the $1.1815-$1.1432 decline.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.17.

The projected lower bound is: 1.14.

The projected closing price is: 1.16.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.5857. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 43 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.158. Volume was 87% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.158 1.159 1.158 1.158 18,467

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.15 1.16 1.19
Volatility: 6 8 9
Volume: 115,540 133,443 138,557

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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