Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) potential for return back down to 2019 lows
The Euro-to-Dollar rate is trading at around 1.1088 at the start of the new week, after falling 0.97% in the week before.
Studies of the charts are showing the short-term trend has flipped again and probably begun to decline, and this suggests more downside is likely in the future – although given the highly random nature of recent moves, this is not a confidence call.
The daily chart shows how the pair has broken down after briefly asserting itself above the top of the long-term wedge and finding resistance at the 50-day moving average (MA).
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.8165. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 263 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.108. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.108 1.108 1.108 1.108 840
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.11 1.12 1.13
Volatility: 3 6 6
Volume: 79,396 76,488 118,252
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.
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