Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Poised For Further Gains

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Poised For Further Gains

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Poised For Further Gains

The EUR/USD exchange rate has made strong gains over recent weeks aided by a tightening in monetary policy in the region.

The European Central Bank (ECB) went ahead and cut monetary stimulus in half last week which aided the uptrend while confirming they are on track to deliver an interest rate rise in about one year from now.

The pair is now trading in the 1.16s and our technical studies observe a bias for further upside.

The pair has broken above a major trendline drawn from the January highs and this has confirmed the bull-trend. A break above the August highs at 1.1734 would add further impetus to the uptrend and probably see an extension to the next target at 1.1790 and the level of the R1 monthly pivot.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.18.

The projected lower bound is: 1.15.

The projected closing price is: 1.16.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.0302. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.163. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 48% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.162 1.163 1.162 1.163 363

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.16 1.16 1.19
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 117,714 137,489 133,656

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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