Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) PMIs Point to Slowing Eurozone Economy
The Euro avoided major losses against the US Dollar for most of the week, as investors sold the US Dollar from its highs amid profit-taking and speculation of a more dovish Federal Reserve.
Multiple comments from Federal Reserve officials predicting that global growth would slow in 2019 and 2020 caused speculation that the Fed’s US interest rate hike cycle would come to an end over the next year.
With markets speculating a more dovish Fed, this spurred investors to sell the recently strong US Dollar.
Despite this, the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate did spend most of the week lower.
The Euro’s appeal was initially limited by concerns about tensions between Italy and the EU. Italy has refused to change its controversial budget plans, and the EU has said it will start to contemplate potential disciplinary measures.
While markets were hopeful that Italy and the EU could reach an agreement rather than discipline becoming necessary, the Euro’s strength was still limited.
On Friday, the latest Eurozone PMI projections from Markit caused market concerns about slowing Eurozone growth to resurface however.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.15.
The projected lower bound is: 1.12.
The projected closing price is: 1.13.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.8884. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 72 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed unchanged at 1.134. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 29% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.134 1.135 1.133 1.134 157
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.15 1.18
Volatility: 9 8 8
Volume: 137,097 136,223 138,624
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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