Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) plummets into initial support hurdles- near-term risk is lower below the monthly open
Euro has plummeted against the US Dollar since the start of the month with price falling to multi-week range-lows today in New York trade. While the broader focus is still weighted to the topside, the near-term outlook remains vulnerable after reversing off longer-term slope resistance into the November open.
The EUR/USD, “breakout is testing the first resistance hurdle here and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable heading into next week.” Price posted an outside-day reversal off the monthly highs on Monday with the Euro plummeting nearly 1% early in the week. The decline takes price into initial support hurdles here at 1.1065 where the 25% line converges on the 38.2% retracement of the October advance.
A break lower from here exposes more significant support at the lower parallel near ~1.1030– a break / close below this threshold would be needed to shift the broader focus lower with such a scenario targeting 1.0994. Monthly open resistance stands at 1.1151 with 1.1187-1.1208 still critical.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.9726. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 46 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -139.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.107. Volume was 7% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.107 1.109 1.106 1.107 72,616
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 5 6 6
Volume: 69,595 75,196 99,337
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.
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