Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) o be moved by PMI data

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) o be moved by PMI data

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) o be moved by PMI data

The Euro-to-Dollar rate is trading at around 1.1182 at the start of the new week after rising 2.61% in the week before. Studies of the charts are showing the short-term uptrend is likely to extend although the approach of a key trendline raises the risk of a correction unfolding.

The daily chart shows more clearly how the pair has risen up to the top of the falling channel where the trendline is situated and the 200-day moving average (MA).

Both these levels are likely to present an obstacle to rising prices and could cause a correction or sideways consolidation to unfold.

Yet at the same time the short-term uptrend is strong as can be seen in the recent steep gradient of price action, and this supports more bullishness on the horizon, since the stronger the trend, the more likely it is to continue.

As mentioned in the analysis of the 4hr chart a clear break above the 1.1235 level would probably lead to a continuation up, in this case to a higher target at 1.1350.

The daily chart is used to give us an indication of the outlook for the medium-term, defined as the next week to a month ahead.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.1860. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 34 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 157.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.116. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.114 1.117 1.113 1.116 449
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 4 6 6
Volume: 73,957 77,171 104,571

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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