Home FX Euro Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) no real economic drivers one way or the other

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) no real economic drivers one way or the other


Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) no real economic drivers one way or the other

The Euro recovered slightly during trading on Thursday, but not anything that was more than to be expected. After all, this is a pair that has been range bound for some time as is typical of the market. If you are looking for big moves, this is not going to be the pair for you. In the summer months it’s very common for currency markets to slow down, and the EUR/USD pair is probably one of the biggest culprits at this.

Looking forward, it’s very likely that we continue to bounce around between the 1.11 level on the bottom in the 1.12 level on the top. As we are closer to the bottom than the top, a bit of about would make sense as well. If we were to break above the 1.12 level, there is significant resistance extending all the way to the 1.1250 level so it’s not until we break above there that I would be a buyer. I believe short-term buying opportunities presented themselves now, but I would be looking for more than about 30 pips.

To the downside, if we break down below the 1.11 handle, we could go down to 1.10 which should be massive support. That of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area that has been important more than once in the past. All things being equal though, I think that’s about as low as this pair will go during the summer.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.13.

The projected upper bound is: 1.12.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.3635. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.06. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 206 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -118.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.113. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.113 1.114 1.113 1.113 3,070

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 3 4 7
Volume: 85,771 111,475 134,202

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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