Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) nice selling opportunity above near the 1.10 level

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) nice selling opportunity above near the 1.10 level

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) nice selling opportunity above near the 1.10 level

The Euro has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday, but there has been a significant amount of recovery late in the day as traders go home for the weekend. That being said, this could set up a nice selling opportunity above near the 1.10 level, as the area had been previous support, and it should now offer a bit of “market memory” in the form of resistance.

On the other hand, if the market was to break down below the bottom of the hammer forming for the trading session it should send this market down to the 1.09 level. The Euro continues to suffer at the hands of the US dollar due to the US economy doing to much better, and quite frankly I believe that most of the main reason we had seen the Euro recover was simple short covering. Traders do not want to be in the market going into the weekend, and it should be noted that most of the short covering happened closer to 11 AM in New York City, which coincides with a lot of Europeans going home.

Going forward, I’m looking for signs of exhaustion to start selling, because the range that had been so crucial for this pair has clearly been violated. The first area I would look for trouble is the 1.10 level, and then the 1.11 level. Ultimately, I will keep you up-to-date on what’s going on in this pair at FX Empire, but going into the Monday session it’s probably best to see some type of bounce that you can start shorting. Otherwise, if we do get a break down below the lows, this pair unwinds rather rapidly.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.10.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.09.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.8256. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 114 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -164.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.094. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 21% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.095 1.095 1.094 1.094 398
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 5 5 5
Volume: 62,097 57,235 73,874

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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