Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) main trend is down according to the daily swing chart
The Euro closed higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday as renewed optimism over a near-term trade deal between the United States and China bolstered the trade-linked single-currency.
Those hopes were generated by upbeat comments from White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow, who said on Thursday a deal was “getting close,” and by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross who told the Fox Business Network on Friday that there was a very high probability the United States would reach a final agreement on a phase one trade deal with China.
Despite the price surge, some traders remained cautious over the two economic powerhouses reaching a trade deal at this time. This may have helped limit the Euro’s gains. Analysts at Commerzbank said the comments from the high-ranking U.S. officials could not be taken seriously until the trade documents could be assessed and a deal signed.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the upside with the formation of the closing price reversal bottom and the subsequent confirmation of the chart pattern on Friday.
A trade through 1.0989 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend officially changes to up on a move through 1.1176.
The main range is 1.0879 to 1.1179. Its retracement zone at 1.1029 to 1.0994 is support. It essentially stopped the selling on November 14.
The new short-term range is 1.1176 to 1.0989. Its retracement zone at 1.1083 to 1.1104 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this zone.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1.10.
The projected closing price is: 1.11.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.8848. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 54 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.105. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.105 1.106 1.105 1.105 391
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.10 1.10 1.12
Volatility: 4 5 6
Volume: 59,907 70,741 95,360
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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