Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) main focus will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) main focus will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) main focus will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed the initial gap higher in early Monday trading, falling from the weekly open of $1.13825 to trade at $1.13503 – a March low – at the time of writing.

For the single currency, Monday will see the release of the latest Spanish unemployment figures with a forecast of 5k substantially lower than the previous 83.5k printing. Eurozone investor confidence figures are also due out, forecast to edge higher but remain in sub-zero (pessimistic) territory.

The main focus will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting later in the week with the central bank expected to retain their cautious outlook as risks to the outlook remain biased to the downside.

For the US Dollar, the data-release schedule is relatively sparse with construction spending figures expected to decline to 0.2% growth (m/m). Reports over the weekend hinted towards a near-term resolution to the US-China trade dispute which if it comes to fruition would likely weigh on the Greenback – which would meet with approval of US President Donald Trump.

Trump said “We have a gentleman in the Fed that loves quantitative tightening. We want a strong dollar, but let’s be reasonable,” adding, “I want a strong dollar, but I want a dollar that’s great for our country not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.12.

The projected closing price is: 1.13.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.8164. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.08. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 142 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.003 at 1.134. Volume was 77% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 33% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.138 1.140 1.133 1.134 33,835

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.14 1.14 1.15
Volatility: 3 7 8
Volume: 137,393 139,955 144,149

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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