Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) looks ready to reach higher

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) looks ready to reach higher

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) looks ready to reach higher

The Euro gapped lower to kick off the week on Monday, showing signs of weakness, but then turned around to fill the gap. At this point it looks as if the Euro is ready to reach higher, and at this point I believe that the 1.09 level is a very interesting area that we can start selling at. If the market breaks above there, then it’s likely that the 1.10 level above also offers resistance. Signs of exhaustion should be jumped upon as the US dollar is most certainly favored over the Euro. The German Ifo Business Climate figures came out at 96.1 earlier in the day, much better than the expected reading of 95.

At this point, it’s simply a matter of sitting on your hands and waiting for a sign to start selling. Buying down here is certainly very risky, but it should be noted that there was a hammer form last week right at a gap so in theory if the Euro was going to turn around and reach to the upside, perhaps changing the trend, from a technical analysis standpoint this is exactly where you would expect to see it. That being said though, I suspect that this bounce simply has more to do with the fact that the market broke apart. It can’t go lower forever, so at this point a bit of a bounce back makes quite a bit of sense. I more than willing to take advantage of that, but I need to see a daily candlestick show signs of exhaustion in the form of a shooting star or something of that ilk.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.10.

The projected upper bound is: 1.10.

The projected lower bound is: 1.08.

The projected closing price is: 1.09.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.6153. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 2. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.003 at 1.088. Volume was 50% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 83% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.085 1.089 1.083 1.088 94,711
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.08 1.10 1.11
Volatility: 6 5 6
Volume: 76,054 62,216 72,474

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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