Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Looking For Support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Looking For Support

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Looking For Support

The Euro has been all over the place during the trading session on Monday, as traders trying to parse whether or not global demand is going to continue to slump, perhaps due to the coronavirus and China, which is the latest headline that a lot of the media is hanging on. It appears that the global demand situation may be slowing down anyway, and of course as Germany is a bulk of what we see in Europe, the fact that the Business Climate numbers were lower than anticipated will weigh upon the value of the Euro as traders concern themselves with whether or not the European Union is trying to stabilize.

If we turn around in recapture the 1.1050 level, it’s likely that we could bounce towards 1.11 handle. At this point, it is a bit premature to suggest that the EU is recovering, but it should be noted that a lot of the numbers have in fact been somewhat stabilizing when looked at on a month per month basis. We could be in the beginning signs of stability, but right now I think it’s a bit of a reach to think that everything will turn around. That being said, if the Euro drops below the 1.0980 level, it’s likely that we drop much further, down to the 1.09 handle, and then possibly even as low as the 1.0750 level which is the scene of a gap that has yet to have been filled.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.09.

The projected closing price is: 1.10.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.7746. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 105 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -149.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed unchanged at 1.102. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.102 1.102 1.102 1.102 62
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.11 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 4 5 5
Volume: 53,263 56,230 75,556

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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