Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Looking for Footing

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Looking for Footing

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Looking for Footing

The Euro has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, but then found enough support at the 1.08 level to turn things back around to form a bit of a more bullish candle than initially thought. However, it should be kept in the back of your mind that the Euro tends to be very choppy against the US dollar, so the fact that we are tightening of the range can mean that we are either building up inertia for the next major move, or we are simply getting back to the norm, at this point it’s a bit difficult to tell because we don’t have the benefit of volume in the Forex markets.

All that being said, we need to look for the most logical place for the market to go looking towards, and for me at this point I suspect it is somewhere near the 1.10 level. That will probably attract enough attention on both sides of the market that it could be “fair value” going forward. At this point I believe that you can use these as that idea of US dollar strength or weakness, as it is very highly correlated to the US Dollar Index. At this point in time, the market simply looks as if it is winding back and forth so it’s a bit difficult to trade this market as we are still trying to figure out exactly what it’s going to be longer-term. I would advise state away from the EUR/USD pair of the next several sessions, although I do believe we will try to find our way towards the 1.10 level given enough time.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.10.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.06.

The projected closing price is: 1.09.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.1835. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.086. Volume was 83% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.086 1.088 1.085 1.086 14,467
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.09 1.10 1.11
Volatility: 12 14 8
Volume: 116,163 106,317 79,478

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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