Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) kicking off the week on a bearish tone

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) kicking off the week on a bearish tone

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) kicking off the week on a bearish tone

The Euro has broken down significantly during the trading session on Monday, kicking off a week on a bearish tone. At this point, the market is likely to continue to go looking towards 1.10 level, as the 1.10 level is the bottom of the overall range, just as the 1.12 level is the top. This makes the 1.11 level as essentially “fair value”, meaning that the market seems to hang around in that area. Ultimately, the market is still in a downtrend, and there are a lot of concerns about global growth right now. That of course will continue to favor the US dollar in a bid for safety, especially as the European Union economic numbers continue to disappoint.

With this being said, the 1.10 level has held steadfast for quite some time, so don’t be surprised if there is a bounce from there. With this, money continues to flow into the United States and away from the European Union as bond yields started to drop during the trading session as well. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to continue the overall consolidation that we have seen over the last several months, thereby potentially setting up a short-term buying opportunity closer to the 1.10 level.

Ultimately, you must assume that the range is going to hold until it doesn’t. I know that’s a bit terse, but at the end of the day it’s one of the few things that you can take to the bank when it comes to trading.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.11.

The projected upper bound is: 1.11.

The projected lower bound is: 1.10.

The projected closing price is: 1.11.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.6189. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 109 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.003 at 1.106. Volume was 0% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.109 1.110 1.103 1.106 63,714
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.10 1.11 1.11
Volatility: 5 5 5
Volume: 63,036 57,571 74,917

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 0.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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