Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) key area to watch will be 1.1185 to 1.1176
The Euro closed lower on Friday as it edged toward a key long-term retracement level and its March 7 main bottom. After topping on March 20, the single-currency has erased nearly all of its gains from earlier in month. For the month, the Euro was down 1.34%. For the year, the single-currency is down 2.18% against the U.S. Dollar.
Last month, the Euro delivered its worst performance since October, weighed down by fears about economic growth and cautious signals from the European Central Bank. Policymakers cut growth forecasts for the Euro Zone economy in early March, while launching a new round of cheap loans to its banks.
Throughout March, a combination of the dovish moves by the ECB and weaker-than-expected economic surveys from Germany drove hedge funds to aggressively reduce their long Euro positions.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on Friday’s close at 1.1218 and the momentum into the close, the key area to watch will be 1.1185 to 1.1176. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this area. If this move is able to produce a daily closing price reversal bottom then we could see a 2 to 3 counter-trend rally.
If 1.1176 is taken out with conviction then look for the selling to possibly extend into 1.1118 to 1.1109. Also, 1.1185 will become new resistance.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.13.
The projected lower bound is: 1.11.
The projected closing price is: 1.12.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 4.9703. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 161 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -148.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.122. Volume was 0% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.122 1.125 1.121 1.122 145,754
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.13 1.15
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 139,288 147,680 142,624
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.